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Open Access Article
1 - Climate Change Assessment in Ardebil province during 2011-2030
ladan kazemi radOutputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference com MoreOutputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference compared to the average results has chosen as a suitable model for predicting the future. Outputs of chosen Model were compared with the base data to determine their trends. The results showed that minimum and maximum temperatures (0.4 ° C) and dry day length (9 days) will increase. Also rainfall (27.5 mm), wet day length (9 days), hot day length (2 days) and frost day length (4 days) will decrease in the period of future. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Prediction of carbon price forecast using time series analysis
Roya AbediMany economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy prod MoreMany economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. The results show that the trend of carbon prices has fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials.Many economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. the trend of carbon prices has ش fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Investigating the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study: Bashar river basin)
Hamid reza Panahi Hossein Montaseri Aliakbar Hekmat zadeh Reza KhaliliThe increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with MoreThe increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with reducing their reflection should be seriously addressed as part of a comprehensive regional response to the vulnerability caused by climate change. In this study, using LARS-WG exponential microscale software and the HadCM3 oceanic atmospheric general circulation model in the form of different scenarios defined in the fourth IPCC report (basic scenarios), including scenario A1, A2, B1, B2, which are more related to regional issues. And the world is concerned from an economic and environmental point of view, the amount of temperature changes and precipitation in the next 100 years of Bashar river basin was predicted. Then the fifth report scenario (RCP) was used and the results were compared with the basic scenarios. The results showed that in both scenarios in the coming period, we will face a large increase in average air temperature, but the decrease in precipitation will not be significant. In the climate change scenario section, RCPs until the end of the 21st century indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the coming years. The amount of temperature changes in RCP2.6 was estimated between 3 and 13% and in RCP8.5 between 4 and 14%; This increase in temperature on a large scale increases evaporation and prolongs drought periods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Investigation of the trend of climate change using simulated data of LARS-WG model in the period of 2011-2030 (Case study: Sardasht region of West Azerbaijan)
maryam aghaie zahra eslamianGiven the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, MoreGiven the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours of Sardasht synoptic station in the period 1996-1996 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in Simulation of meteorological parameters in Sardasht region, to study climatic parameters in climate change, data; Three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of HadCM3 model in the period 2030-2011 were scaled with LARS-WG small statistical model. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Sardasht watershed will increase by 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also shows a 2% increase compared to the base period. The results also show that in general, the performance of Lars model in modeling the meteorological variables of the stations under study is appropriate and can be used to reconstruct the data of stations in the past or Extend this data to the next period. It can also be used to assess the future climate of the province on a local scale. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Investigating the impact of climate change on the environment and agriculture
Bahareh Rafiei Hamed Kioumarsi Reza Naseri Harsini Seyed Mohammad Reza MahdavianDuring the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the huma MoreDuring the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the human conflict with the problems which has created for the planet, including wars and new diseases, has caused less attention to the impact of climate change on environment and especially the related agriculture activities. If the agricultural sector exposed by climate change and will not be able to meet human food needs, life will be near to its end point. Agricultural activities are not only exposed to these changes, but also by leaving possible negative effects on environment lead to these changes. Threatening food security, the reduction of biological diversity, the loss of soil, the reduction of water resources, and the conversion of forests into farms and their gradual destruction, turn the earth into an unlivable area with the unpredictable occurrence of storms, floods and temperature changes. Therefore, investigating the impact of climate change and its components on different ecosystems and species that affect agriculture can be a step towards achieving new management mechanisms to reduce and adapt to these changes and achieving sustainable environment and agriculture. Manuscript profile
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